Bloomberg Government: These Democrats Led One Trump Fightback. They’re Trying Again
- Members of 2018 blue wave now making statewide runs
- They aim to reshape Democratic image as polling sags
When Donald Trump first powered into the White House, Mikie Sherrill had never held elected office. Neither had Haley Stevens or Abigail Spanberger or Angie Craig.
But all four joined a Democratic push that flipped longtime Republican districts, won back the US House and gave their party a hold on power, embodying a midterm wave driven by suburban women.
Now, they’re part of a crop of Democrats hoping to again change the face — and fortunes — of their party early in another Trump presidency.
They’re among several class of 2018 House Democrats who are major contenders in races for governor or Senate in Virginia, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Already two of their classmates, Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Andy Kim (N.J.) have made the leap to the Senate. Reps. Katie Porter (Calif.) and Deb Haaland (N.M.) are also running for governor, others could still join statewide races.
Their prominence shows how wave elections can seed political talent that shapes parties for years. Democrats hope it also points to the way back after a stinging defeat in 2024.
Several Democrats elected in 2018 likened this moment to that year — when they rebounded to gain 41 House seats and add more than 60 freshmen.
“As someone who flipped a seat from red to blue,” that year, said Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), “this is a time of catalytic action and we can’t just sit by.”
She’s running for Senate.
Along with Trump’s presence, Democrats say that like 2018, the GOP is pursuing tax cuts weighted toward the wealthy and policies that could cost millions their health coverage.
“You can draw a lot of comparisons,” said Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.), who chaired the Democratic House campaign arm in 2018.
As Democrats try to revive their sagging brand, some elected that year say they have the approach the party needs.
“We represent a lot of what people are looking for in terms of a new generation of leadership stepping up, people who know how to win tough districts, tough states, that can build wider coalitions,” said Kim. Those traits, he and other classmates argued, make them suited for the challenges of statewide races that draw even more scrutiny, spending, and attacks.
“There was a real impatience with the status quo,” for those who arrived in 2018, said Sherrill, one of the top Democratic contenders in New Jersey’s competitive gubernatorial primary next week.
Still, while midterm elections usually favor the party out of power, Democrats may face a steeper challenge next year.
Redistricting has made it hard for either side to win House landslides. Republicans hold fewer seats, leaving fewer obvious targets. And while special election results have again favored Democrats, Trump’s poll numbers are now better and Democrats’ worse, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for the election forecasting site Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Some polls show Democratic approval at all-time lows.
“We might be entering an era where both parties have higher floors and lower ceilings in the House,” Kondik said, noting that the last three House elections have seen modest gains for either party.
Democrats, including those who won in 2018, hope they can help their party rebrand.
“Unlike 2018 there’s a broad recognition that there needs to be some Democratic renewal,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), who was part of that year’s wave and is now co-chair of recruitment for House races next year. “The Democratic party didn’t deliver in some very important places around the country.”
Lasting Impacts
Recent wave elections, though, show that if a party can capture a political moment, the results can ripple outward for a generation.
The Republican class of 2010 brought in then-Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Reps. Kristi Noem (S.D). and Sean Duffy (Wis.) — all now cabinet secretaries. Rep. Mick Mulvaney (S.C.) went on to become White House chief of staff in the first Trump administration, while Rep. Mike Pompeo (Kansas) became Secretary of State. Future Sens. Todd Young (Ind.), Tim Scott (S.C.) and James Lankford (Okla.) all won their first House races that year en route to the upper chamber.
Democrats are now benefiting from their own well of talent.
Sherrill and former Rep. Spanberger (Va.) are running for governor, while Porter and Haaland campaign for open gubernatorial posts next year. Reps. Craig (Minn.), Chris Pappas (N.H.), and Stevens are seeking their party’s Senate nominations. All face primary competition.
Each of the Senate candidates are aiming to hold potentially competitive seats as proven Democratic incumbents retire. As part of their political cases, they’re often touting their records capturing Republican House districts in expensive, bruising races.
Slotkin, last year showed the value of a political bench stocked with tested candidates.
Despite Trump’s 2024 victory in Michigan, she a won a tight race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. She’s now emerging as a national figure, tapped to deliver her party’s response to Trump’s congressional address in March.
Disparate Backgrounds
Crow pointed to the 2018 group’s disparate backgrounds as a strength: They had often often been around government, in national security roles — including Sherrill, Spanberger, Slotkin, and Kim — but many were running for office for the first time.
“This notion that problems will be solved only inside D.C. is outdated,” he said.
Not everything worked out for Democrats that year. Some of the class lost their seats. Several have sought higher office and failed. And Trump is back, exerting more power than before.
“In Trump’s first term there was a resistance to everything he did, and I would say it behooves our caucus to make sure we outline what it is we stand for, not just what we’re against,” said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), elected in 2018. She senses “a similar dynamic” to that year building for the upcoming election.
The group that once pulled Democrats out of such doldrums is trying it again.